Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 53 to 59 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 52 to 58 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 74 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 67 to 87. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 76 near the shore to around 57 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 53 to 59 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 88 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 52 to 58 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 55 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny with isolated showers. Highs 85 to 90 near the shore to 67 to 75 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 55 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will bring moderate to locally breezy trades today. A low level trough will move through the region on Thursday, weakening the trades and increasing clouds and showers through Friday. High pressure will build back in across the region Saturday bringing a brief return of moderate trades. Another brief increase in clouds, showers and humidity levels will develop from Sunday into Monday as the remnants of Ivo move through the state. A more stable and dry weather pattern looks to return from Tuesday onward.

Discussion

Looking at the latest satellite and radar imagery we see a few bands of low level clouds riding in on the trades with some some isolated showers embedded in these clouds. Winds continue to be in the moderate to locally breezy range but changes are coming.
Tomorrow the weather pattern changes a bit as an easterly wave drifting in on the trades moves from east to west up the island chain. Trade winds will decrease and island heating will drive afternoon sea breezes across leeward areas of each island. An increase in clouds and showers is likely through Friday morning. Friday afternoon into early Sunday the upper level trough lifts northward and a stable upper ridge moves directly over the islands, decreasing clouds and showers.
By Sunday afternoon, remnants of what was tropical cyclone Ivo will move from east to west through the chain. This trough will have slightly different island by island impacts as deeper moisture and dynamics are associated with it. Humidity levels, moderate trades, increasing cloudiness and scattered showers can be expected through Monday.
A high pressure ridge will build back into the region on Tuesday, bringing a more typical dry stable summer weather pattern across the state through at least mid-week.

Aviation

Dry with widely scattered -SHRA under moderate trade winds through Thursday. While VFR conditions will prevail there are some pockets of MVFR. The islands are under mid to upper level ridging and will result in continued stable conditions. Mountain waves depicted by today's visible satellite imagery proof of this stability.
AIRMET Tango is in effect to cover turbulence immediately south through west of all island mountains.

Marine

The ridge north of the state is beginning to weaken ahead of a surface trough approaching from the east. As a result, trade winds are on the decline and the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island has been cancelled. As the trough moves westward through the island chain through Thursday, winds will diminish to light easterlies which may become variable in direction at times. Moderate to locally fresh trades return Friday becoming locally strong over the weekend.
The current south swell will continue to gradually decline today. Background small, long-period south southwest swell should fill in Thursday keeping surf slightly below average. A couple of small, long-period southerly swells is expected to fill by the weekend, keeping surf heights near average into early next week, though likely remaining below advisory level.
Surf along east facing shores will see a slight uptick later today through Friday due to a small, medium-period northeast swell. Short-period chop increases this weekend again as stronger trades develop. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny through the forecast period.

Fire weather

Weather conditions will likely remain below critical fire weather thresholds into early next week. A low level disturbance will move into the region from Thursday to Friday morning producing a slight increase in clouds and showers. Another low level disturbance associated with the remnants of former tropical cyclone Ivo will increase humidity levels and shower trends on Sunday and Monday. A return to lower humidity levels will develop by Tuesday as a stable upper level ridge builds back over the island chain.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov